Academic:

• "Mere Puffery or Convincing Claims? Rebel News and Civilian Perceptions of Group Strength". Forthcoming at International Studies Quarterly.

• Amira Jadoon and Caleb Lucas. "Winning or Losing Hearts and Minds? Evidence from Afghanistan on How Leadership Decapitation Affects Civilian Perceptions of Government Efficacy," Journal of Politics 86, no. 1 (2024):216-230. [Link] [Bib]

• Will Hobbs, Nazita Lajevardi, Xinyi Li, and Caleb Lucas. "From Anti-Muslim to Anti-Jewish: Target Substitution on Fringe Social Media Platforms and the Persistence of Online and Offline Hate." Forthcoming at Political Behavior.

• Caleb Lucas, Benjamin Appel, and Alyssa Prorok. "Not Too Distant: Grievance, Opportunity, and the Onset of Civil War," Civil Wars 24, no. 4 (2022):497-523. [Link] [Bib]

• Kevin Greene and Caleb Lucas. "Once More, With Feeling: Using Sentiment Analysis to Improve Models of Relationships Between Non-State Actors," International Interactions 46, no. 1 (2020):150-162. [Link] [Bib]

Publicly Available RAND Reports (Peer-Reviewed):

• Early Warning: Detecting Malign Information Operations, RAND Corporation, RR-A2853-1, 2025 (with Christopher A. Mouton and Shaun Ee)

• The Operational Risks of AI in Large-Scale Biological Attacks: Results of a Red-Team Study, RAND Corporation, RR-A2977-2, 2024 (with Christopher A. Mouton and Ella Guest)

  • Cited by Mitt Romney & the Senate Emerging Threats and Spending Oversight Subcommittee
  • Cited by the Congressional National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology
  • Cited by the Department of Commerce's Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute
  • Winner of the 2024 RAND Bronze Medal Award
  • Project covered in the Guardian, Politico, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Fast Company, Popular Mechanics, others

• Harnessing the Power of Private Sector Innovation to Defeat a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan: Relighting Vulcan's Forge, RAND Corporation, RR-A2930-1, 2024 (with Ryseff et al.)

• The Operational Risks of AI in Large-Scale Biological Attacks: A Red-Team Approach, RAND Corporation, RR-A2977-1, 2024 (with Christopher A. Mouton and Ella Guest)

• Establishing a Sovereign Guided Weapons Enterprise for Australia: International and Domestic Lessons Learned, RAND Corporation, RR-A1710-1, 2022 (with Mouton et al.)